Russian space chief Anatoly Perminov's grim warning over asteroid that could 'kill millions'

CORKY SIEMASZKO
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER

Wednesday, December 30th 2009, 3:33 PM

Getty/AP

Russia's space agency chief Antoly Perminov says a spacecraft needs to build soon to knock the asteroid Apophis off its course as it hurtles towards Earth

Anatoly Perminov stoked up some hysteria Wednesday as he sounded the alarm about an asteroid called Apophis that is hurtling in the general direction of Earth.The head of Russia's space agency either knows something we don't - or there's something in his Tang.

"Peoples' lives are at stake," Perminov told a Russian news agency.

"We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would ... prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people."

Never mind that NASA has already placed the odds of the asteroid slamming our planet in 2036 at an extremely remote 1-in-250,000.

Perminov said he heard from a scientist that the 850-foot asteroid "will surely collide with the Earth in the 2030s."

While Perminov did not name the scientist, he did come up with a plan for knocking Apophis off its path that seems to have been inspired by Hollywood action films like "Armageddon" and "Deep Impact."

Perminov proposed sending a rocket ship to deflect the asteroid off course. He also intends to enlist the help of NASA, the European Space Agency, and the Chinese too.

"Calculations show that it's possible to create a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have," he said. "The threat of collision can be averted."

Apophis is no secret to astronomers, who first spotted it in 2004. They estimated then the chances of it smashing into Earth would be as high as 1-in-37 when the asteroid flies by in 2029.

Further studies ruled out the likelihood of Apophis hitting the planet that year but suggested there was an extremely small possibility of a hit when the asteroid returns seven years later.

In July 2008, Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) - with the backing of the House - directed NASA to track Apophis and develop its own plan to protect the planet.

NASA has estimated that if Apophis did hit the Earth, it could cause a huge explosion - or churn up a tsunami - capable of killing millions. But it would probably not end civilization as we know it.

Russia plans to stop asteroid crashing to Earth

Russia wants to send a spacecraft to knock the large Apophis asteroid off a possible collision course with Earth.

Published: 10:12PM GMT 30 Dec 2009

This file image shows an asteroid approaching earth Photo: GETTY

The ambitious plan envisages the co-operation of Nasa, the European and Chinese space agencies to pull off a mission with echoes of a Hollywood blockbuster.

Anatoly Perminov, the head of Russia's space agency, said it would assess the difficulties of knocking the asteroid Apophis out of harm's way.

2004. Astronomers estimated the chances of it smashing into Earth in its first flyby in 2029 were as high as 1-in-37, but have since lowered their estimate.

Further studies ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to come no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth, but they indicated a small possibility of a hit on subsequent encounters.

In October, Nasa lowered the odds that Apophis could hit Earth to a 1-in-250,000 chance. But Mr Perminov said he still believed there was scientific evidence that the asteroid could pose a danger to humankind.

"People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people," he said.

Scientists have previously proposed sending a probe to circle around a dangerous asteroid to gradually change its trajectory. Others suggested sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and alter its momentum, or using nuclear weapons to hit it, as in the films Deep Impact and Armageddon.

"Calculations show that it's possible to create a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have, which would help avoid the collision without destroying it [the asteroid] and without detonating any nuclear charges," said Mr Perminov said.

Boris Shustov, the director of the Institute of Astronomy under the Russian Academy of Sciences, hailed Perminov's statement as a signal that officials had come to recognize the danger posed by asteroids.

"Apophis is just a symbolic example, there are many other dangerous objects we know little about," he said, according to RIA Novosti news agency.